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Miedź Legnica II vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
O. Zygmunt 74'
8/28/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Miedź Legnica II48%
×Draw23%
Chrobry Głogów II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedź Legnica II
1.75
Chrobry Głogów II
1.31

Miedź Legnica II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II
2.02
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II
1.62
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw
71%
Miedź Legnica II or Chrobry Głogów II
77%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
52%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
26%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
83%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
52%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
25%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
73%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
38%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
62%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more
48%
level
23%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
29%

Miedź Legnica II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
O. Zygmunt
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Miedź Legnica II 0 – 1 Chrobry Głogów II

Chrobry Głogów II beat Miedź Legnica II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 28, 2022.

Goals: O. Zygmunt (74').

The match was played at Akademii Piłkarskiej Miedzi in Legnica.