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Chrobry Głogów II vs Miedź Legnica II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
Unknown 24'
M. Garuch 79'
M. Pojasek 65'
M. Orzechowski 56' (pen), 8'
4/1/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II32%
×Draw22%
Miedź Legnica II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.60
Miedź Legnica II
1.96

Miedź Legnica II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Miedź Legnica II
1.26

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Miedź Legnica II
1.74

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Miedź Legnica II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
54%
Chrobry Głogów II or Miedź Legnica II
78%
Draw or Miedź Legnica II
68%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
15%
Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
80%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
47%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
22%
Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
86%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
58%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
41%
Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.60

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
32%
level
22%
Miedź Legnica II scores more
46%

Miedź Legnica II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Orzechowski
24'
56'
M. OrzechowskiPenalty
65'
M. Pojasek
79'
M. Garuch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Chrobry Głogów II 1–4 Miedź Legnica II

Miedź Legnica II beat Chrobry Głogów II 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 1, 2023.

Goals: M. Orzechowski (8', 56' pen), ? (24'), M. Pojasek (65'), M. Garuch (79').

The match was played at MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie in Głogów.