Midtjylland W 2–2 Odense Q W: Result & Stats

Midtjylland W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Odense Q W

M. Kaihoj 79'

H. Fruensgaard 38'

M. Bech 51', 45' (pen)

5/30/2026

Kvindeliga · Relegation - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Midtjylland W59%

×Draw20%

Odense Q W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Midtjylland WExpected goals in this matchOdense Q W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.31

Midtjylland W

2.29

Odense Q W

1.31

Midtjylland W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

2.36

creates per match

1.19

1.43

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Midtjylland W

2.36

Odense Q W

1.19

allows per match

Midtjylland W

1.43

Odense Q W

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midtjylland W+0.00on par

Odense Q W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland W ↓

Odense Q W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Midtjylland W or draw

79%

Midtjylland W or Odense Q W

80%

Draw or Odense Q W

41%

Winning margin

Midtjylland W wins by 2+

37%

Odense Q W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Midtjylland W 1+ goals

90%

Midtjylland W 2+ goals

66%

Midtjylland W 3+ goals

40%

Odense Q W 1+ goals

73%

Odense Q W 2+ goals

38%

Odense Q W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland W (draw refunded)

74%

Odense Q W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland W at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Odense Q W away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland W attack 2.36 + Odense Q W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.29

Odense Q W attack 1.19 + Midtjylland W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Midtjylland W scores more

59%

level

20%

Odense Q W scores more

21%

Midtjylland W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Midtjylland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

H. Fruensgaard↳ I. Rathe

45'

F. Nautrup

45'

M. BechPenalty

46'

R. Dybdahl← R. Dybdahl

51'

M. Bech

52'

M. Kaihoj← E. Nielsen

52'

M. Perdersen← T. Vestermark

53'

N. Munk← H. Fruensgaard

68'

M. Bech← M. Bech

77'

L. Sehested← F. Ebbesvik

77'

C. Hjortso← C. Hjortso

79'

M. Kaihoj↳ N. Munk

83'

C. Jepsen← A. Jeppesen

86'

S. Yde← E. Dahlmann

Midtjylland

Odense

1

Worsoe

3

Henriksen

4

Baskaya

6

Hjortso

7

Bech

9

Winther

11

▼

Dahlmann

17

▼

Ebbesvik

20

Thrige

24

Holmgaard

25

Rasmussen

3

Nabbumba

7

Nielsen

10

▼

Vestermar

12

▼

Dybdahl

23

Nautrup

24

Fruensgaa

25

A

Rathe

27

Hoffmann

36

Jessen

44

▼

Jeppesen

51

Troelsgaa

Manager: Steen Gravgaard

46'▲—←▼R. Dybdahl

52'▲M. Kaihoj←▼E. Nielsen

52'▲M. Perdersen←▼T. Vestermark

53'▲N. Munk←▼H. Fruensgaard

83'▲C. Jepsen←▼A. Jeppesen

Midtjylland W substitutes

4Jepsen8Rejkjaer9Kaihoj11Perdersen15Munk17Givskov40Baadsgaard

Manager: Peer Lisdorff

68'▲—←▼M. Bech

77'▲L. Sehested←▼F. Ebbesvik

77'▲—←▼C. Hjortso

86'▲S. Yde←▼E. Dahlmann

Odense Q W substitutes

2Sehested8Schulz26Yde27Rasmussen28Hildebrand29Rexbye30Hojgard