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Midtjylland W vs Odense Q W — Kvindeliga 2019

Midtjylland W
Midtjylland W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Odense Q W
Odense Q W
10/4/2025KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 8MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Midtjylland W59%
×Draw20%
Odense Q W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midtjylland W
2.29
Odense Q W
1.31

Midtjylland W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

creates per match

Midtjylland W
2.36
Odense Q W
1.19

allows per match

Midtjylland W
1.43
Odense Q W
2.22

finishing

Midtjylland W+0.00on par
Odense Q W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland W ↓

Odense Q W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Midtjylland W or draw
79%
Midtjylland W or Odense Q W
80%
Draw or Odense Q W
41%

Winning margin

Midtjylland W wins by 2+
37%
Odense Q W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Midtjylland W 1+ goals
90%
Midtjylland W 2+ goals
66%
Midtjylland W 3+ goals
40%
Odense Q W 1+ goals
73%
Odense Q W 2+ goals
38%
Odense Q W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland W (draw refunded)
74%
Odense Q W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland W at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Odense Q W away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland W attack 2.36 + Odense Q W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.29

Odense Q W attack 1.19 + Midtjylland W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Midtjylland W scores more
59%
level
20%
Odense Q W scores more
21%

Midtjylland W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Midtjylland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Midtjylland W vs Odense Q W

Odense Q W beat Midtjylland W 3-0 in Kvindeliga on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.