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Midland vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Midland
Midland
FT
1 – 1
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
8/30/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 7Estadio Ferrocarril Midland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Midland40%
×Draw30%
Ituzaingó30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland
1.14
Ituzaingó
0.95

Midland creates 20% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 94 away

creates per match

Midland
1.39
Ituzaingó
0.95

allows per match

Midland
0.95
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Midland+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Midland or draw
70%
Midland or Ituzaingó
70%
Draw or Ituzaingó
60%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+
17%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals
68%
Midland 2+ goals
32%
Midland 3+ goals
11%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
61%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
25%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)
57%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.95 · 93 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.88 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.39 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ituzaingó attack 0.95 + Midland defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Midland scores more
40%
level
30%
Ituzaingó scores more
30%

Midland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Midland 1–1 Ituzaingó

Midland and Ituzaingó drew 1-1 in Primera C on August 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ferrocarril Midland in Libertad, Provincia de Buenos Aires.