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Ituzaingó vs Midland — Primera C 2026

Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
FT
2 – 1
Midland
Midland
4/14/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 7Estadio de Ituzaingó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Ituzaingó41%
×Draw29%
Midland30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituzaingó
1.18
Midland
0.96

Ituzaingó creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 92 away

creates per match

Ituzaingó
1.09
Midland
1.17

allows per match

Ituzaingó
0.75
Midland
1.26

finishing

Ituzaingó+0.00on par
Midland+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituzaingó ↓

Midland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ituzaingó or draw
70%
Ituzaingó or Midland
71%
Draw or Midland
59%

Winning margin

Ituzaingó wins by 2+
18%
Midland wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ituzaingó 1+ goals
69%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
33%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
12%
Midland 1+ goals
62%
Midland 2+ goals
25%
Midland 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
58%
Midland (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituzaingó at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.75 · 93 matches

Midland away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituzaingó attack 1.09 + Midland defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Midland attack 1.17 + Ituzaingó defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ituzaingó scores more
41%
level
29%
Midland scores more
30%

Ituzaingó at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ituzaingó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ituzaingó vs Midland

Ituzaingó beat Midland 2-1 in Primera C on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Ituzaingó in Ituzaingó, Provincia de Buenos Aires.