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Midland vs Deportivo Armenio — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Midland
Midland
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
10/7/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 16Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Midland50%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Armenio21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland
1.27
Deportivo Armenio
0.72

Midland creates 76% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 125 away

creates per match

Midland
1.59
Deportivo Armenio
0.99

allows per match

Midland
0.46
Deportivo Armenio
0.94

finishing

Midland+0.00on par
Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Deportivo Armenio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Midland or draw
79%
Midland or Deportivo Armenio
71%
Draw or Deportivo Armenio
50%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals
72%
Midland 2+ goals
36%
Midland 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
51%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.46 · 41 matches

Deportivo Armenio away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.59 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Armenio attack 0.99 + Midland defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Midland scores more
50%
level
29%
Deportivo Armenio scores more
21%

Midland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Midland vs Deportivo Armenio

Midland and Deportivo Armenio drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on October 7, 2025.

The match was played at Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium in Buenos Aires.