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Deportivo Armenio vs Midland — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Midland
Midland
5/18/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 16Armenia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Deportivo Armenio34%
×Draw32%
Midland34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Armenio
0.94
Midland
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 42 away

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio
1.19
Midland
0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio
0.90
Midland
0.69

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par
Midland+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

Midland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw
66%
Deportivo Armenio or Midland
68%
Draw or Midland
66%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
12%
Midland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
7%
Midland 1+ goals
61%
Midland 2+ goals
24%
Midland 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
50%
Midland (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Midland away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.19 + Midland defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.94

Midland attack 0.95 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more
34%
level
32%
Midland scores more
34%

Deportivo Armenio at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Armenio 1–0 Midland

Deportivo Armenio beat Midland 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Armenia Stadium in Buenos Aires.