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Midland vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Midland
Midland
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
2/14/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 2Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Midland55%
×Draw27%
Argentino Quilmes18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland
1.47
Argentino Quilmes
0.71

Midland creates 107% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 123 away

creates per match

Midland
1.59
Argentino Quilmes
0.96

allows per match

Midland
0.46
Argentino Quilmes
1.35

finishing

Midland+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Midland or draw
82%
Midland or Argentino Quilmes
73%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
45%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+
28%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals
77%
Midland 2+ goals
43%
Midland 3+ goals
18%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
51%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
16%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)
75%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.46 · 41 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.59 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.96 + Midland defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Midland scores more
55%
level
27%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
18%

Midland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Midland 2–0 Argentino Quilmes

Midland beat Argentino Quilmes 2-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium in Buenos Aires.