Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Midland vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera C 2026

Midland
Midland
FT
0 – 1
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
4/7/2019Primera CPrimera C · Round 32Estadio Ferrocarril Midland (Libertad, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Midland40%
×Draw28%
Argentino Quilmes32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midland
1.24
Argentino Quilmes
1.07

Midland creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 19 away

creates per match

Midland
1.37
Argentino Quilmes
1.21

allows per match

Midland
0.94
Argentino Quilmes
1.11

finishing

Midland+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Midland or draw
68%
Midland or Argentino Quilmes
72%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
60%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+
18%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals
71%
Midland 2+ goals
35%
Midland 3+ goals
13%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
66%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
29%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)
56%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.94 · 94 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.37 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Argentino Quilmes attack 1.21 + Midland defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Midland scores more
40%
level
28%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
32%

Midland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Midland vs Argentino Quilmes

Argentino Quilmes beat Midland 1-0 in Primera C on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ferrocarril Midland (Libertad, Provincia de Buenos Aires).