Midlakes United 1–2 Ballard: Result & Stats

Midlakes United

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ballard

6/29/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 15Courter Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Midlakes United26%

×Draw22%

Ballard52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Midlakes UnitedExpected goals in this matchBallard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.97

Midlakes United

1.35

Ballard

1.97

Ballard creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 35 away

1.71

creates per match

2.51

1.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Midlakes United

1.71

Ballard

2.51

allows per match

Midlakes United

1.43

Ballard

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midlakes United+0.00on par

Ballard+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midlakes United ↓

Ballard →

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Midlakes United or draw

48%

Midlakes United or Ballard

78%

Draw or Ballard

74%

Winning margin

Midlakes United wins by 2+

11%

Ballard wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Midlakes United 1+ goals

74%

Midlakes United 2+ goals

39%

Midlakes United 3+ goals

15%

Ballard 1+ goals

86%

Ballard 2+ goals

58%

Ballard 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Midlakes United (draw refunded)

34%

Ballard (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Midlakes United at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Ballard away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Midlakes United attack 1.71 + Ballard defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ballard attack 2.51 + Midlakes United defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Midlakes United scores more

26%

level

22%

Ballard scores more

52%

Ballard at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff