Ballard 2–0 Midlakes United: Result & Stats

Ballard

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Midlakes United

5/30/2026

USL League Two · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ballard69%

×Draw17%

Midlakes United14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BallardExpected goals in this matchMidlakes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.03

Ballard

2.51

Midlakes United

1.03

Ballard creates 144% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 21 away

2.88

creates per match

1.29

0.77

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Ballard

2.88

Midlakes United

1.29

allows per match

Ballard

0.77

Midlakes United

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par

Midlakes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

Midlakes United →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Ballard or draw

86%

Ballard or Midlakes United

83%

Draw or Midlakes United

31%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+

47%

Midlakes United wins by 2+

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals

92%

Ballard 2+ goals

71%

Ballard 3+ goals

45%

Midlakes United 1+ goals

64%

Midlakes United 2+ goals

28%

Midlakes United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)

83%

Midlakes United (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Midlakes United away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.88 + Midlakes United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.51

Midlakes United attack 1.29 + Ballard defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ballard scores more

69%

level

17%

Midlakes United scores more

14%

Ballard at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff