Middlesbrough W 0–0 Hull City W: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough W

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City W

10/22/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingThe Map Group UK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Middlesbrough W33%

×Draw20%

Hull City W48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Middlesbrough WExpected goals in this matchHull City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.41

Middlesbrough W

1.98

Hull City W

2.41

Hull City W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.71

creates per match

3.25

1.57

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Middlesbrough W

2.71

Hull City W

3.25

allows per match

Middlesbrough W

1.57

Hull City W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough W+0.00on par

Hull City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough W ↓

Hull City W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Middlesbrough W or draw

52%

Middlesbrough W or Hull City W

80%

Draw or Hull City W

67%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough W wins by 2+

17%

Hull City W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Middlesbrough W 1+ goals

86%

Middlesbrough W 2+ goals

59%

Middlesbrough W 3+ goals

31%

Hull City W 1+ goals

91%

Hull City W 2+ goals

69%

Hull City W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough W (draw refunded)

40%

Hull City W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough W at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Hull City W away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough W attack 2.71 + Hull City W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Hull City W attack 3.25 + Middlesbrough W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Middlesbrough W scores more

33%

level

20%

Hull City W scores more

48%

Hull City W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hull City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Middlesbrough W 0–0 Hull City W

Middlesbrough W and Hull City W drew 0-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at The Map Group UK Stadium in Stockton-on-Tees.

Middlesbrough W vs Hull City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Middlesbrough W 0–0 Hull City W