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Hull City W vs Middlesbrough W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Hull City W
Hull City W
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Middlesbrough W
Middlesbrough W
12/1/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundEasy Buy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hull City W29%
×Draw19%
Middlesbrough W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City W
1.88
Middlesbrough W
2.52

Middlesbrough W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hull City W
1.75
Middlesbrough W
1.80

allows per match

Hull City W
3.25
Middlesbrough W
2.00

finishing

Hull City W+0.00on par
Middlesbrough W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City W ↓

Middlesbrough W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Hull City W or draw
48%
Hull City W or Middlesbrough W
81%
Draw or Middlesbrough W
71%

Winning margin

Hull City W wins by 2+
15%
Middlesbrough W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hull City W 1+ goals
85%
Hull City W 2+ goals
56%
Hull City W 3+ goals
29%
Middlesbrough W 1+ goals
92%
Middlesbrough W 2+ goals
71%
Middlesbrough W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Hull City W (draw refunded)
36%
Middlesbrough W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Middlesbrough W away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City W attack 1.75 + Middlesbrough W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Middlesbrough W attack 1.80 + Hull City W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hull City W scores more
29%
level
19%
Middlesbrough W scores more
52%

Middlesbrough W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Middlesbrough W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Hull City W 0–0 Middlesbrough W

Hull City W and Middlesbrough W drew 0-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Easy Buy Stadium in Barton-upon-Humber, Lincolnshire.