Middlesbrough 1–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Watford

Y. Bolasie 78'

I. Sarr 32'

4/5/2021

Championship · Round 40Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Middlesbrough48%

×Draw26%

Watford25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.98

Middlesbrough

1.46

Watford

0.98

Middlesbrough creates 49% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

1.55

creates per match

1.01

0.96

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.55

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Watford

1.38

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

75%

Middlesbrough or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

52%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

24%

Watford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

77%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

43%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

62%

Watford 2+ goals

26%

Watford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

66%

Watford (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 66 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.55 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Watford attack 1.01 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

48%

level

26%

Watford scores more

25%

Middlesbrough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

D. Fisher

Middlesbrough · D

7.5

Match Events

25'

Nathaniel Chalobah

30'

H. Coulson← Sam Morsy

32'

I. Sarr↳ P. Zinckernagel

73'

Y. Bolasie← N. Kebano

73'

C. Akpom← D. Watmore

77'

D. Gosling← P. Zinckernagel

78'

Y. Bolasie↳ P. McNair

83'

I. Success← K. Sema

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWatford

Overview

35%Possession65%

3Total Shots10

5Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

3Total Shots10

1On Target2

2Off Target3

0Blocked5

3Inside Box7

0Outside Box3

Passing

35%Possession65%

238Total Passes449

144Accurate Passes354

61%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Watford

Middlesbrough and Watford drew 1-1 in Championship on April 5, 2021.

Goals: I. Sarr (32'), Y. Bolasie (78').

Watford controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 3.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Watford — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Watford