Middlesbrough 0–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

J. Holebas 54'

10/16/2016

Premier League · Round 8Riverside

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough43%

×Draw27%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Middlesbrough

1.34

Watford

1.08

Middlesbrough creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

0.89

creates per match

0.96

1.21

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Middlesbrough

0.89

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Middlesbrough

1.21

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

70%

Middlesbrough or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

20%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

59%

Watford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.89 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.34

Watford attack 0.96 + Middlesbrough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

43%

level

27%

Watford scores more

30%

Middlesbrough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Holebas

Watford · D

8.4

Match Events

21'

38'

42'

54'

65'

69'

Daniel Ayala← Barragán

69'

Adama Traoré← C. Stuani

72'

C. Zúñiga← N. Amrabat

74'

Marten de Roon

85'

C. Kabasele← M. Britos

88'

J. Rhodes← M. de Roon

89'

B. Watson← I. Success

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWatford

Overview

63%Possession37%

10Total Shots4

4Corners6

15Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots4

3On Target2

7Off Target1

0Blocked1

6Inside Box2

4Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

467Total Passes265

388Accurate Passes186

83%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1