Middlesbrough 1–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

P. Bamford 72'

N. Redmond 57'

J. Rodriguez 42'

5/13/2017

Premier League · Round 37Riverside

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middlesbrough39%

×Draw27%

Southampton33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Middlesbrough

1.27

Southampton

1.15

Middlesbrough creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 168 away

0.89

creates per match

1.08

1.21

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Middlesbrough

0.89

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Middlesbrough

1.21

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

67%

Middlesbrough or Southampton

73%

Draw or Southampton

61%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Southampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

36%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Southampton 1+ goals

68%

Southampton 2+ goals

32%

Southampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

54%

Southampton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.89 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Southampton attack 1.08 + Middlesbrough defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

39%

level

27%

Southampton scores more

33%

Middlesbrough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Rodriguez

Southampton · F

8.1

Match Events

42'

J. Rodriguez↳ S. Long

46'

N. Redmond← S. Boufal

57'

N. Redmond↳ J. Rodriguez

60'

G. Leadbitter← A. Forshaw

60'

V. Fischer← S. Downing

66'

Adam Clayton

72'

P. Bamford↳ V. Fischer

74'

S. Davis← P. Højbjerg

86'

Ben Gibson

87'

C. Austin← S. Long

90'

Marten de Roon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughSouthampton

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots14

6Corners3

19Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target4

5Off Target6

6Blocked4

8Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

367Total Passes522

281Accurate Passes439

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls11

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0