Middlesbrough 2–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sheffield Utd

9/28/2021

Championship · Round 10Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Middlesbrough42%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.11

Middlesbrough

1.36

Sheffield Utd

1.11

Middlesbrough creates 23% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

1.54

creates per match

1.27

0.96

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.54

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

69%

Middlesbrough or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

58%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

20%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

16%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

67%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

30%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

58%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

42%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

31%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff