Middlesbrough 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

M. Johnson 60'

9/14/2019

Championship · Round 7Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Middlesbrough48%

×Draw27%

Reading25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.97

Middlesbrough

1.44

Reading

0.97

Middlesbrough creates 48% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 112 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

0.96

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.38

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

75%

Middlesbrough or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

52%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

24%

Reading wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

76%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

42%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

18%

Reading 1+ goals

62%

Reading 2+ goals

25%

Reading 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

65%

Reading (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 188 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.38 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Reading attack 0.99 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

48%

level

27%

Reading scores more

25%

Middlesbrough at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Randolph

Middlesbrough · G

8.9

Match Events

27'

44'

59'

60'

67'

Lucas João← T. Mcintyre

67'

G. Puşcaş← A. Rinomhota

68'

Daniel Ayala← M. Bola

84'

D. Loader← L. Boyé

86'

G. Saville← L. Wing

90+3'

M. Tavernier← M. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughReading

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots18

5Corners10

12Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots18

2On Target7

4Off Target5

5Blocked6

5Inside Box11

6Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

315Total Passes447

231Accurate Passes377

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

5Offsides2