Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

M. Forss 54'

1/14/2023

Championship · Round 27Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Middlesbrough46%

×Draw27%

Millwall27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.04

Middlesbrough

1.43

Millwall

1.04

Middlesbrough creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

1.54

creates per match

1.12

0.96

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.54

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Millwall

1.32

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

73%

Middlesbrough or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

54%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

22%

Millwall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

76%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

42%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

17%

Millwall 1+ goals

65%

Millwall 2+ goals

28%

Millwall 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

63%

Millwall (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Millwall attack 1.12 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

46%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

27%

Middlesbrough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Fry

Middlesbrough · D

7.6

Match Events

39'

George Long

45+1'

Matt Crooks

54'

M. Forss

55'

G. Saville← J. Cooper

70'

M. Bennett← A. Voglsammer

73'

C. Archer← M. Forss

78'

George Saville

78'

D. Watmore← M. Crooks

83'

R. Esse← G. Honeyman

83'

J. Shackleton← B. Mitchell

87'

Jonathan Howson

90'

Shaun Hutchinson

90+3'

M. Bola← R. McGree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughMillwall

Overview

66%Possession34%

7Total Shots8

6Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots8

3On Target2

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

5Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

610Total Passes320

513Accurate Passes222

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Championship: Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall

Middlesbrough beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on January 14, 2023.

Goals: M. Forss (54').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (66%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall