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Middlesbrough vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
M. Crooks 15'
S. Bamba 27' (OG)
11/20/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Middlesbrough46%
×Draw27%
Millwall27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.43
Millwall
1.04

Middlesbrough creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.54
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Millwall
1.32

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
73%
Middlesbrough or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
54%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
22%
Millwall wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
76%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
42%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
17%
Millwall 1+ goals
65%
Millwall 2+ goals
28%
Millwall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
63%
Millwall (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Millwall attack 1.12 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
46%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
27%

Middlesbrough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
B. BialkowskiMillwallMillwall · G
7.9

Match Events

15'
M. Crooks↳ D. Watmore
27'
S. BambaOwn goal
34'
Mason Bennett
45+3'
Jake Cooper
46'
J. Coburn← A. Šporar
58'
Jonathan Howson
67'
S. Ojo← M. Bennett
71'
O. Hernández← I. Jones
81'
M. Kieftenbeld← B. Afobe
86'
M. Smith← J. Wallace
87'
U. Ikpeazu← D. Watmore

Possession

51%Middlesbrough

Shots

13Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

51%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughMillwall
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots6
10Corners4
10Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots6
7On Target1
3Off Target2
3Blocked3
9Inside Box3
4Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
356Total Passes343
260Accurate Passes235
73%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Championship: Middlesbrough 1–1 Millwall

Middlesbrough and Millwall drew 1-1 in Championship on November 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Crooks (15'), S. Bamba (27' o.g.).

Middlesbrough controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.