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Middlesbrough vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
M. Tavernier 8'
G. Hall 78' (OG)
M. Ekpiteta 62'
9/18/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Middlesbrough49%
×Draw27%
Blackpool24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.45
Blackpool
0.94

Middlesbrough creates 54% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 52 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.38
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
76%
Middlesbrough or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
51%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
24%
Blackpool wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
77%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
42%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
18%
Blackpool 1+ goals
61%
Blackpool 2+ goals
24%
Blackpool 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
67%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 188 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.38 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
49%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
24%

Middlesbrough at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. TavernierMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
M. Tavernier↳ D. Fry
12'
Dael Fry
35'
Matt Crooks
56'
I. Jones← A. Dijksteel
62'
M. Ekpiteta↳ R. Keogh
71'
G. Madine← T. John-Jules
78'
G. HallOwn goal
79'
M. Payero← J. Lea Siliki
86'
J. Yates← S. Lavery
87'
U. Ikpeazu← J. Howson
90+4'
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel
90+3'
J. Lawrence-Gabriel← J. Bowler

Possession

50%Middlesbrough

Shots

9Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

48%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughBlackpool
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots11
6Corners6
9Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots11
5On Target1
3Off Target5
1Blocked5
7Inside Box8
2Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
308Total Passes318
196Accurate Passes222
64%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Blackpool

Blackpool beat Middlesbrough 2-1 in Championship on September 18, 2021.

Goals: M. Tavernier (8'), M. Ekpiteta (62'), G. Hall (78' o.g.).

Middlesbrough controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.