Blackpool 1–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

S. Lavery 90+1'

D. Watmore 90+3'

A. Šporar 60'

12/29/2021

Championship · Round 25Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool36%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.32

Blackpool

1.29

Middlesbrough

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 185 away

1.23

creates per match

1.37

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Middlesbrough

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

62%

Blackpool or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

64%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

16%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

72%

Blackpool 2+ goals

37%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

73%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

38%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

49%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackpool scores more

36%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

38%

Middlesbrough at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

I. Jones

Middlesbrough · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

40'

44'

60'

61'

62'

D. Watmore← O. Hernández

71'

Matt Crooks

73'

S. Lavery← J. Yates

73'

J. Bowler← D. Grétarsson

73'

U. Ikpeazu← A. Šporar

89'

Lee Peltier

89'

D. Mitchell← R. Keogh

90+1'

S. Lavery

90+3'

D. Watmore↳ I. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolMiddlesbrough

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots11

5Corners4

9Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

401Total Passes390

290Accurate Passes288

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0