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Middelfart vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
Preview
12:00
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
9/19/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8
Big match
40%
Middelfart
model favours
40%27%33%
1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Middelfart40%
×Draw27%
VSK Århus33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.30
VSK Århus
1.17

Middelfart creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 29 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
67%
Middelfart or VSK Århus
73%
Draw or VSK Århus
60%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
18%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
73%
Middelfart 2+ goals
37%
Middelfart 3+ goals
14%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
69%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
33%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
54%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Middelfart scores more
40%
level
27%
VSK Århus scores more
33%

Middelfart at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Middelfart
LLLL
Århus
WWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middelfart vs VSK Århus — Match Preview

Middelfart face VSK Århus on September 19, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.