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Middelfart vs Kolding IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
C. Vestergaard 21'
1/17/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3MG & BK.s anlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Middelfart46%
×Draw23%
Kolding IF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.75
Kolding IF
1.41

Middelfart creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Middelfart
2.08
Kolding IF
1.50

allows per match

Middelfart
1.31
Kolding IF
1.42

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
69%
Middelfart or Kolding IF
77%
Draw or Kolding IF
54%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
24%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
83%
Middelfart 2+ goals
52%
Middelfart 3+ goals
25%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
76%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
41%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
59%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 2.08 + Kolding IF defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kolding IF attack 1.50 + Middelfart defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Middelfart scores more
46%
level
23%
Kolding IF scores more
31%

Middelfart at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
C. Vestergaard
Middelfart
Kolding
Kim Engstrøm
Manager: Kim Engstrøm
Albert Rudé Rull
Manager: Albert Rudé Rull

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Kolding IF

Kolding IF beat Middelfart 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2025.

Goals: C. Vestergaard (21').

The match was played at MG & BK.s anlæg in Middelfart.