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Middelfart vs Kolding IF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
M. de Claville Berthelsen 31'
C. Kudsk 89'
P. Ngongo 64'
T. Mikkelsen 49'
4/2/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Middelfart31%
×Draw26%
Kolding IF44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.18
Kolding IF
1.46

Kolding IF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 33 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Kolding IF
1.73

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Kolding IF
0.85

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
56%
Middelfart or Kolding IF
74%
Draw or Kolding IF
69%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
12%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
69%
Middelfart 2+ goals
33%
Middelfart 3+ goals
12%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
77%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
43%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
41%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Middelfart scores more
31%
level
26%
Kolding IF scores more
44%

Kolding IF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
M. de Claville Berthelsen
49'
T. Mikkelsen
64'
P. Ngongo
89'
C. Kudsk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Middelfart 1–3 Kolding IF

Kolding IF beat Middelfart 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 2, 2022.

Goals: M. de Claville Berthelsen (31'), T. Mikkelsen (49'), P. Ngongo (64'), C. Kudsk (89').

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.