Middelfart 1–0 Holbæk B&I: Result & Stats

Middelfart

FT

1 – 0

Holbæk B&I

11/7/2020

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11MG & BK.s anlæg - kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Middelfart51%

×Draw24%

Holbæk B&I25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddelfartExpected goals in this matchHolbæk B&I

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.12

Middelfart

1.69

Holbæk B&I

1.12

Middelfart creates 51% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

1.04

1.20

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Middelfart

1.50

Holbæk B&I

1.04

allows per match

Middelfart

1.20

Holbæk B&I

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Holbæk B&I →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw

75%

Middelfart or Holbæk B&I

76%

Draw or Holbæk B&I

49%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+

27%

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals

82%

Middelfart 2+ goals

50%

Middelfart 3+ goals

24%

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals

67%

Holbæk B&I 2+ goals

31%

Holbæk B&I 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)

67%

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Holbæk B&I attack 1.04 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Middelfart scores more

51%

level

24%

Holbæk B&I scores more

25%

Middelfart at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff