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Holbæk B&I vs Middelfart — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
FT
1 – 2
Middelfart
Middelfart
M. Bobjerg Larsen 22'
C. Johansen 84' (pen)
P. Kristensen 62'
5/15/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Holbæk Sportsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Holbæk B&I35%
×Draw25%
Middelfart41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holbæk B&I
1.38
Middelfart
1.52

Middelfart creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

creates per match

Holbæk B&I
1.50
Middelfart
1.32

allows per match

Holbæk B&I
1.71
Middelfart
1.25

finishing

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holbæk B&I ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Holbæk B&I or draw
59%
Holbæk B&I or Middelfart
75%
Draw or Middelfart
65%

Winning margin

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
16%
Middelfart wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
75%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
40%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
16%
Middelfart 1+ goals
78%
Middelfart 2+ goals
45%
Middelfart 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
46%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holbæk B&I at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holbæk B&I attack 1.50 + Middelfart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Middelfart attack 1.32 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Holbæk B&I scores more
35%
level
25%
Middelfart scores more
41%

Middelfart at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
M. Bobjerg Larsen
62'
P. Kristensen
84'
C. JohansenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holbæk B&I vs Middelfart

Middelfart beat Holbæk B&I 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 15, 2021.

Goals: M. Bobjerg Larsen (22'), P. Kristensen (62'), C. Johansen (84' pen).

The match was played at Holbæk Sportsby in Holbæk.