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Middelfart vs Dalum — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
0 – 1
Dalum
Dalum
4/17/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Middelfart46%
×Draw25%
Dalum29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.56
Dalum
1.18

Middelfart creates 32% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 19 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Dalum
1.16

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Dalum
1.63

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
71%
Middelfart or Dalum
75%
Draw or Dalum
54%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
23%
Dalum wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
79%
Middelfart 2+ goals
46%
Middelfart 3+ goals
21%
Dalum 1+ goals
69%
Dalum 2+ goals
33%
Dalum 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
62%
Dalum (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Dalum away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Dalum defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalum attack 1.16 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Middelfart scores more
46%
level
25%
Dalum scores more
29%

Middelfart at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Middelfart 0–1 Dalum

Dalum beat Middelfart 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.