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Dalum vs Middelfart — 3. Division 2021

Dalum
Dalum
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Middelfart
Middelfart
4/6/20233. Division3. Division · Round 21Rema 1000 Park - Dalum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dalum12%
×Draw18%
Middelfart70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalum
0.81
Middelfart
2.24

Middelfart creates 177% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dalum
1.06
Middelfart
2.19

allows per match

Dalum
2.29
Middelfart
0.56

finishing

Dalum+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalum ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dalum or draw
30%
Dalum or Middelfart
82%
Draw or Middelfart
88%

Winning margin

Dalum wins by 2+
4%
Middelfart wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Dalum 1+ goals
56%
Dalum 2+ goals
19%
Dalum 3+ goals
5%
Middelfart 1+ goals
89%
Middelfart 2+ goals
65%
Middelfart 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Dalum (draw refunded)
15%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalum at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

Middelfart away — creates 2.19, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalum attack 1.06 + Middelfart defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.81

Middelfart attack 2.19 + Dalum defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dalum scores more
12%
level
18%
Middelfart scores more
70%

Middelfart at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dalum vs Middelfart

Middelfart beat Dalum 1-0 in 3. Division on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Rema 1000 Park - Dalum in Odense.