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Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad — 1. Division 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
5/1/20261. Division1. Division · Relegation Group - 28Middelfart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Middelfart25%
×Draw23%
Aarhus Fremad52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.19
Aarhus Fremad
1.81

Aarhus Fremad creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.19

allows per match

Middelfart
2.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
48%
Middelfart or Aarhus Fremad
77%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
75%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
10%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
70%
Middelfart 2+ goals
33%
Middelfart 3+ goals
12%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
84%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
54%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
33%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.00 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.19 + Middelfart defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Middelfart scores more
25%
level
23%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
52%

Aarhus Fremad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Middelfart 1-0 in 1. Division on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadium in Middelfart.