Aarhus Fremad 0–0 Middelfart: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Middelfart

5/31/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 8Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Aarhus Fremad47%

×Draw25%

Middelfart28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchMiddelfart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.21

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

Middelfart

1.21

Aarhus Fremad creates 35% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 56 away

2.01

creates per match

1.32

1.09

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

2.01

Middelfart

1.32

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

1.09

Middelfart

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Middelfart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

72%

Aarhus Fremad or Middelfart

75%

Draw or Middelfart

53%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

24%

Middelfart wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

80%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

48%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

22%

Middelfart 1+ goals

70%

Middelfart 2+ goals

34%

Middelfart 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

62%

Middelfart (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + Middelfart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Middelfart attack 1.32 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

47%

level

25%

Middelfart scores more

28%

Aarhus Fremad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

E. Andersen← E. Andersen

45+2'

46'

56'

60'

62'

62'

S. Baekgard← S. Baekgard

68'

S. Denius← S. Denius

70'

N. Barholt

80'

O. Andreasen← O. Andreasen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff