Middelfart 0–2 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Middelfart

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aarhus Fremad

J. Singh 85'

F. Hogh Jensen 65'

4/13/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 1MG & BK.s anlæg - kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Middelfart35%

×Draw26%

Aarhus Fremad39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddelfartExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.42

Middelfart

1.32

Aarhus Fremad

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 81 away

1.50

creates per match

1.63

1.20

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Middelfart

1.50

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Middelfart

1.20

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw

61%

Middelfart or Aarhus Fremad

74%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

65%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+

15%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals

73%

Middelfart 2+ goals

38%

Middelfart 3+ goals

15%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

76%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

41%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)

47%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Middelfart scores more

35%

level

26%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

39%

Aarhus Fremad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

F. Hogh Jensen

85'

J. Singh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff