Mid-Ulster W 0–3 Lisburn Rangers W: Result & Stats

Mid-Ulster W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Lisburn Rangers W

10/11/2024

Premiership Women · Round 18Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mid-Ulster W11%

×Draw13%

Lisburn Rangers W75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mid-Ulster WExpected goals in this matchLisburn Rangers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

3.25

Mid-Ulster W

1.23

Lisburn Rangers W

3.25

Lisburn Rangers W creates 164% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

0.63

creates per match

2.00

4.50

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Mid-Ulster W

0.63

Lisburn Rangers W

2.00

allows per match

Mid-Ulster W

4.50

Lisburn Rangers W

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par

Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mid-Ulster W ↓

Lisburn Rangers W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Mid-Ulster W or draw

25%

Mid-Ulster W or Lisburn Rangers W

87%

Draw or Lisburn Rangers W

89%

Winning margin

Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+

4%

Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals

71%

Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals

35%

Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals

13%

Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals

96%

Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals

83%

Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)

13%

Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mid-Ulster W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 4.50 · 8 matches

Lisburn Rangers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.63 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.00 + Mid-Ulster W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Mid-Ulster W scores more

11%

level

13%

Lisburn Rangers W scores more

75%

Lisburn Rangers W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff