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Lisburn Rangers W vs Mid-Ulster W — Premiership Women 2024

Lisburn Rangers W
Lisburn Rangers W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
7/26/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 9Crewe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lisburn Rangers W87%
×Draw8%
Mid-Ulster W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Rangers W
4.63
Mid-Ulster W
1.25

Lisburn Rangers W creates 270% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lisburn Rangers W
2.38
Mid-Ulster W
0.25

allows per match

Lisburn Rangers W
2.25
Mid-Ulster W
6.88

finishing

Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par
Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Rangers W ↓

Mid-Ulster W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Lisburn Rangers W or draw
95%
Lisburn Rangers W or Mid-Ulster W
92%
Draw or Mid-Ulster W
13%

Winning margin

Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+
73%
Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals
99%
Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals
93%
Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals
80%
Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
71%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
36%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)
94%
Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Rangers W at home — creates 2.38, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Mid-Ulster W away — creates 0.25, concedes 6.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.38 + Mid-Ulster W defence 6.88 → ÷2 → 4.63

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.25 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Lisburn Rangers W scores more
87%
level
8%
Mid-Ulster W scores more
5%

Lisburn Rangers W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Lisburn Rangers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Lisburn Rangers W 5–0 Mid-Ulster W

Lisburn Rangers W beat Mid-Ulster W 5-0 in Premiership Women on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Crewe Park in Lisburn.