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Mid-Ulster W vs Lisburn Ladies W — Premiership Women 2024

Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
FT
1 – 4
Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
7/5/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 8Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mid-Ulster W28%
×Draw18%
Lisburn Ladies W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mid-Ulster W
2.02
Lisburn Ladies W
2.83

Lisburn Ladies W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

creates per match

Mid-Ulster W
0.63
Lisburn Ladies W
1.16

allows per match

Mid-Ulster W
4.50
Lisburn Ladies W
3.40

finishing

Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par
Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mid-Ulster W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Mid-Ulster W or draw
46%
Mid-Ulster W or Lisburn Ladies W
82%
Draw or Lisburn Ladies W
72%

Winning margin

Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
14%
Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
87%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
60%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
33%
Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
94%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
77%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
34%
Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mid-Ulster W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 4.50 · 8 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.63 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.02

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.16 + Mid-Ulster W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mid-Ulster W scores more
28%
level
18%
Lisburn Ladies W scores more
54%

Lisburn Ladies W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lisburn Ladies W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mid-Ulster W vs Lisburn Ladies W

Lisburn Ladies W beat Mid-Ulster W 4-1 in Premiership Women on July 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stangmore Park in Dungannon.