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Lisburn Ladies W vs Mid-Ulster W — Premiership Women 2024

Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
FT
2 – 0
Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
10/4/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 17The Bluebell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lisburn Ladies W77%
×Draw12%
Mid-Ulster W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lisburn Ladies W
3.78
Mid-Ulster W
1.45

Lisburn Ladies W creates 161% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lisburn Ladies W
0.68
Mid-Ulster W
0.25

allows per match

Lisburn Ladies W
2.64
Mid-Ulster W
6.88

finishing

Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par
Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lisburn Ladies W ↓

Mid-Ulster W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Lisburn Ladies W or draw
89%
Lisburn Ladies W or Mid-Ulster W
88%
Draw or Mid-Ulster W
23%

Winning margin

Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
60%
Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
97%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
88%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
70%
Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
77%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
42%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
88%
Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lisburn Ladies W at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.64 · 22 matches

Mid-Ulster W away — creates 0.25, concedes 6.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lisburn Ladies W attack 0.68 + Mid-Ulster W defence 6.88 → ÷2 → 3.78

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.25 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Lisburn Ladies W scores more
77%
level
12%
Mid-Ulster W scores more
11%

Lisburn Ladies W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Lisburn Ladies W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Lisburn Ladies W 2–0 Mid-Ulster W

Lisburn Ladies W beat Mid-Ulster W 2-0 in Premiership Women on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at The Bluebell Stadium in Lisburn.