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Mid-Ulster W vs Derry City W — Premiership Women 2024

Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
FT
1 – 6
Derry City W
Derry City W
6/7/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 4Stangmore Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mid-Ulster W20%
×Draw17%
Derry City W64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mid-Ulster W
1.70
Derry City W
3.04

Derry City W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Mid-Ulster W
0.63
Derry City W
1.57

allows per match

Mid-Ulster W
4.50
Derry City W
2.78

finishing

Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par
Derry City W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mid-Ulster W ↓

Derry City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Mid-Ulster W or draw
36%
Mid-Ulster W or Derry City W
83%
Draw or Derry City W
80%

Winning margin

Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
9%
Derry City W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
82%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
51%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
24%
Derry City W 1+ goals
95%
Derry City W 2+ goals
80%
Derry City W 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
24%
Derry City W (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mid-Ulster W at home — creates 0.63, concedes 4.50 · 8 matches

Derry City W away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.63 + Derry City W defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Derry City W attack 1.57 + Mid-Ulster W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mid-Ulster W scores more
20%
level
17%
Derry City W scores more
64%

Derry City W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Mid-Ulster W 1–6 Derry City W

Derry City W beat Mid-Ulster W 6-1 in Premiership Women on June 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stangmore Park in Dungannon.