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Derry City W vs Mid-Ulster W — Premiership Women 2024

Derry City W
Derry City W
FT
4 – 0
Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
8/30/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 13The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Derry City W84%
×Draw9%
Mid-Ulster W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
4.16
Mid-Ulster W
1.21

Derry City W creates 244% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.44
Mid-Ulster W
0.25

allows per match

Derry City W
2.17
Mid-Ulster W
6.88

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Mid-Ulster W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
93%
Derry City W or Mid-Ulster W
91%
Draw or Mid-Ulster W
16%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
69%
Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
98%
Derry City W 2+ goals
91%
Derry City W 3+ goals
75%
Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
70%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
34%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
93%
Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Mid-Ulster W away — creates 0.25, concedes 6.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.44 + Mid-Ulster W defence 6.88 → ÷2 → 4.16

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.25 + Derry City W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Derry City W scores more
84%
level
9%
Mid-Ulster W scores more
7%

Derry City W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derry City W vs Mid-Ulster W

Derry City W beat Mid-Ulster W 4-0 in Premiership Women on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Londonderry.