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VfL Wolfsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — Bundesliga 2026

VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
R. Knoche 76'
W. Weghorst 69' (pen)
M. Arnold 4'
2/16/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22Volkswagen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

VfL Wolfsburg45%
×Draw23%
FSV Mainz 0532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VfL Wolfsburg
1.76
FSV Mainz 05
1.46

VfL Wolfsburg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.77
FSV Mainz 05
1.42

allows per match

VfL Wolfsburg
1.50
FSV Mainz 05
1.75

finishing

VfL Wolfsburg-0.54scores less
FSV Mainz 05-0.15scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Wolfsburg ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

VfL Wolfsburg or draw
68%
VfL Wolfsburg or FSV Mainz 05
77%
Draw or FSV Mainz 05
55%

Winning margin

VfL Wolfsburg wins by 2+
24%
FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

VfL Wolfsburg 1+ goals
83%
VfL Wolfsburg 2+ goals
52%
VfL Wolfsburg 3+ goals
26%
FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals
77%
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
43%
FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

VfL Wolfsburg (draw refunded)
58%
FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Wolfsburg at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.75 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.77 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.76

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.42 + VfL Wolfsburg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VfL Wolfsburg scores more
45%
level
23%
FSV Mainz 05 scores more
32%

VfL Wolfsburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VfL Wolfsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
R. KnocheVfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg · D
8.6

Match Events

4'
M. Arnold↳ J. Brekalo
40'
Josip Brekalo
44'
Stefan Bell
60'
K. Onisiwo← R. Quaison
69'
W. WeghorstPenalty
71'
A. Mehmedi← R. Steffen
76'
R. Knoche↳ Y. Gerhardt
77'
A. Ujah← J. Boëtius
77'
G. Holtmann← D. Latza
78'
F. Klaus← J. Brekalo
85'
E. Rexhbecaj← J. Guilavogui

Possession

51%VfL

Shots

17VfL

Pass accuracy

50%VfL

Statistics

VfLFSV
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots12
4Corners7
6Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots12
6On Target4
9Off Target6
2Blocked2
9Inside Box6
8Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
464Total Passes423
355Accurate Passes326
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Bundesliga: VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 FSV Mainz 05

VfL Wolfsburg beat FSV Mainz 05 3-0 in Bundesliga on February 16, 2019.

Goals: M. Arnold (4'), W. Weghorst (69' pen), R. Knoche (76').

VfL Wolfsburg controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg.