FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS — Super Liga 2017
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
FK Crvena Zvezda76%
Radnicki NIS9%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Crvena Zvezda creates 258% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Crvena Zvezda ↓
Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 6 matches
Radnicki NIS away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.71 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Crvena Zvezda attack 3.08 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.40
Radnicki NIS attack 0.61 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 76%?"
FK Crvena Zvezda at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 76% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Radnicki NIS substitutes
FK Crvena ZvezdaRadnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FK Crvena Zvezda host Radnicki NIS on Sunday, 23 July 2017 at 17:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2017/2018 season.
Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS
FK Crvena Zvezda beat Radnicki NIS 3-0 in Super Liga on July 23, 2017.
Goals: A. Pešić (40'), S. Srnić (57', 87').
The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić (Beograd).