Miami FC 1–1 FC Tulsa: Result & Stats

Miami FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Tulsa

3/11/2023

USL Championship · Round 1Riccardo Silva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Miami FC43%

×Draw24%

FC Tulsa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miami FCExpected goals in this matchFC Tulsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.35

Miami FC

1.59

FC Tulsa

1.35

Miami FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 130 away

1.37

creates per match

1.19

1.52

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Miami FC

1.37

FC Tulsa

1.19

allows per match

Miami FC

1.52

FC Tulsa

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miami FC+0.00on par

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami FC ↓

FC Tulsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Miami FC or draw

68%

Miami FC or FC Tulsa

76%

Draw or FC Tulsa

57%

Winning margin

Miami FC wins by 2+

22%

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Miami FC 1+ goals

80%

Miami FC 2+ goals

47%

Miami FC 3+ goals

21%

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

74%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

39%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Miami FC (draw refunded)

57%

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami FC attack 1.37 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Miami FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Miami FC scores more

43%

level

24%

FC Tulsa scores more

32%

Miami FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Miami FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff