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FC Tulsa vs Miami FC — USL Championship 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Miami FC
Miami FC
7/13/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 23ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FC Tulsa44%
×Draw25%
Miami FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
1.53
Miami FC
1.25

FC Tulsa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 100 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
1.45
Miami FC
1.07

allows per match

FC Tulsa
1.42
Miami FC
1.61

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Miami FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Miami FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
69%
FC Tulsa or Miami FC
75%
Draw or Miami FC
56%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
22%
Miami FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
78%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
45%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
20%
Miami FC 1+ goals
71%
Miami FC 2+ goals
36%
Miami FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
58%
Miami FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Miami FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.61 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Miami FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.53

Miami FC attack 1.07 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
44%
level
25%
Miami FC scores more
31%

FC Tulsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: FC Tulsa 1–0 Miami FC

FC Tulsa beat Miami FC 1-0 in USL Championship on July 13, 2023.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.