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Miami AC vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Miami AC
Miami AC
FT
3 – 0
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
6/1/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 20Monsignor Pace High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Miami AC41%
×Draw26%
Florida Elite32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami AC
1.40
Florida Elite
1.21

Miami AC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Miami AC
1.40
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Miami AC
1.04
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Miami AC+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami AC ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Miami AC or draw
68%
Miami AC or Florida Elite
74%
Draw or Florida Elite
59%

Winning margin

Miami AC wins by 2+
19%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Miami AC 1+ goals
75%
Miami AC 2+ goals
41%
Miami AC 3+ goals
17%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
70%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
34%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Miami AC (draw refunded)
56%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami AC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami AC attack 1.40 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Miami AC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Miami AC scores more
41%
level
26%
Florida Elite scores more
32%

Miami AC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Miami AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Miami AC 3–0 Florida Elite

Miami AC beat Florida Elite 3-0 in USL League Two on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at Monsignor Pace High School Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.