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Florida Elite vs Miami AC — USL League Two 2018

Florida Elite
Florida Elite
FT
4 – 1
Miami AC
Miami AC
6/4/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 24Mandarin High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Florida Elite53%
×Draw24%
Miami AC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Florida Elite
1.73
Miami AC
1.06

Florida Elite creates 63% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Florida Elite
2.11
Miami AC
1.32

allows per match

Florida Elite
0.81
Miami AC
1.36

finishing

Florida Elite+0.00on par
Miami AC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Florida Elite ↓

Miami AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Florida Elite or draw
77%
Florida Elite or Miami AC
76%
Draw or Miami AC
47%

Winning margin

Florida Elite wins by 2+
29%
Miami AC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Florida Elite 1+ goals
82%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
52%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
25%
Miami AC 1+ goals
65%
Miami AC 2+ goals
29%
Miami AC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Florida Elite (draw refunded)
70%
Miami AC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Florida Elite at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Miami AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Florida Elite attack 2.11 + Miami AC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Miami AC attack 1.32 + Florida Elite defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Florida Elite scores more
53%
level
24%
Miami AC scores more
23%

Florida Elite at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Florida Elite 4 – 1 Miami AC

Florida Elite beat Miami AC 4-1 in USL League Two on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Mandarin High School in Jacksonville, Florida.