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Miami AC vs FC Florida II — USL League Two 2018

Miami AC
Miami AC
FT
2 – 1
FC Florida II
FC Florida II
6/8/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27Christopher Columbus High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Miami AC55%
×Draw25%
FC Florida II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami AC
1.61
FC Florida II
0.85

Miami AC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

Miami AC
1.40
FC Florida II
0.67

allows per match

Miami AC
1.04
FC Florida II
1.83

finishing

Miami AC+0.00on par
FC Florida II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami AC ↓

FC Florida II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Miami AC or draw
80%
Miami AC or FC Florida II
75%
Draw or FC Florida II
45%

Winning margin

Miami AC wins by 2+
30%
FC Florida II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Miami AC 1+ goals
80%
Miami AC 2+ goals
48%
Miami AC 3+ goals
22%
FC Florida II 1+ goals
57%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
21%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Miami AC (draw refunded)
74%
FC Florida II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami AC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

FC Florida II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami AC attack 1.40 + FC Florida II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Florida II attack 0.67 + Miami AC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Miami AC scores more
55%
level
25%
FC Florida II scores more
20%

Miami AC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Miami AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Miami AC 2–1 FC Florida II

Miami AC beat FC Florida II 2-1 in USL League Two on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at Christopher Columbus High School in Miami, Florida.