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FC Florida II vs Miami AC — USL League Two 2026

FC Florida II
FC Florida II
FT
1 – 2
Miami AC
Miami AC
7/6/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 60The Pine School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Florida II30%
×Draw25%
Miami AC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Florida II
1.22
Miami AC
1.54

Miami AC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

FC Florida II
1.08
Miami AC
1.32

allows per match

FC Florida II
1.75
Miami AC
1.36

finishing

FC Florida II+0.00on par
Miami AC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Florida II ↓

Miami AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Florida II or draw
55%
FC Florida II or Miami AC
75%
Draw or Miami AC
70%

Winning margin

FC Florida II wins by 2+
13%
Miami AC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC Florida II 1+ goals
70%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
34%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
12%
Miami AC 1+ goals
79%
Miami AC 2+ goals
45%
Miami AC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Florida II (draw refunded)
40%
Miami AC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Florida II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Miami AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Florida II attack 1.08 + Miami AC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Miami AC attack 1.32 + FC Florida II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Florida II scores more
30%
level
25%
Miami AC scores more
45%

Miami AC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Miami AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Florida II vs Miami AC

Miami AC beat FC Florida II 2-1 in USL League Two on July 6, 2022.

The match was played at The Pine School in Hobe Sound, Florida.