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MFM vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
2 – 1
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
1/15/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 15Agege Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

MFM61%
×Draw25%
Jigawa Golden Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.56
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.59

MFM creates 164% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 31 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MFM or draw
86%
MFM or Jigawa Golden Stars
75%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
39%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
33%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
79%
MFM 2+ goals
46%
MFM 3+ goals
21%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
45%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
12%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
81%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

MFM scores more
61%
level
25%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
14%

MFM at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: MFM 2–1 Jigawa Golden Stars

MFM beat Jigawa Golden Stars 2-1 in NPFL on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Agege Stadium in Lagos.