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Jigawa Golden Stars vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MFM
MFM
3/29/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 18Ahmadu Bello Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jigawa Golden Stars54%
×Draw29%
MFM16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.28
MFM
0.56

Jigawa Golden Stars creates 129% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 61 away

creates per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.16
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
0.63
MFM
1.41

finishing

Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jigawa Golden Stars ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Jigawa Golden Stars or draw
84%
Jigawa Golden Stars or MFM
71%
Draw or MFM
46%

Winning margin

Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
26%
MFM wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
72%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
37%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
14%
MFM 1+ goals
43%
MFM 2+ goals
11%
MFM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
77%
MFM (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jigawa Golden Stars at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 1.16 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

MFM attack 0.49 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
54%
level
29%
MFM scores more
16%

Jigawa Golden Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jigawa Golden Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jigawa Golden Stars vs MFM

Jigawa Golden Stars beat MFM 1-0 in NPFL on March 29, 2021.

The match was played at Ahmadu Bello Stadium in Kaduna.