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MFM vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
2/6/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 11Teslim Balogun Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

MFM50%
×Draw30%
Akwa United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.22
Akwa United
0.65

MFM creates 88% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 111 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Akwa United
1.28

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MFM or draw
80%
MFM or Akwa United
70%
Draw or Akwa United
50%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
23%
Akwa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
70%
MFM 2+ goals
34%
MFM 3+ goals
12%
Akwa United 1+ goals
48%
Akwa United 2+ goals
14%
Akwa United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
72%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Akwa United attack 0.66 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

MFM scores more
50%
level
30%
Akwa United scores more
20%

MFM at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: MFM 0–0 Akwa United

MFM and Akwa United drew 0-0 in NPFL on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos.